Q1 GDP上升了0.8％Q/Q，略高于我们的0.7％的预测，并且比RBNZ的0.4％更强。服务和制造业推动了收益，同时建筑经过一年的收缩后稳定。经济现已连续发布Q/Q扩展，但产出仍然低于潜力，Standard Charter的经济学家Bader Al Sarraf和Nicholas Chia报告。
完善着陆是另一个故事
“New Zealand's Q1 GDP expanded by 0.8% q/q (-0.7% y/y), marginally above our estimate (0.7% q/q), and stronger than the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ's) projection (0.4% q/q). This marks the second consecutive quarter of growth following last year's technical recession, reinforcing signs that the economy has found a cyclical floor, in our view. Though欢迎扩张，经济仍然脆弱。
“第一季度GDP增长的细分显示出了谦虚但正在扩大的篮板。商业服务表明了稳定的动力（2.4％Q/Q），以及制造业和施工的稳定。尽管Q1数据是2025年的起点更强，但自3月以来自3月以来的高频率指标的起点更强，这表明活动可能已经倾斜了，现在风险倾向于倾向于倾斜的动态型动态型动态型型号。
“We expect the RBNZ to hold rates steady in July, followed by a final cut in August to bring the terminal Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 3%. On one hand, the upside GDP surprise gives the bank breathing space. On the other, geopolitical tensions have pushed oil prices significantly higher since the May meeting, increasing the risk of a renewed inflation impulse. With the RBNZ already concerned about persistent price-setting behaviour, this could raise the在我们看来，酒吧可以进一步放松。”
（Tagstotranslate）纽西兰（T）银行（T）GDP（T）NZDUSD（T）RBNZ
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