潜在的关税暴露 – 标准包机

与特朗普1.0不同，东盟现在面临着根据特朗普2.0的关税直接影响的风险。东盟可以承受特定产品的关税，并且可以通过普遍性的自然来减轻影响，标准特许经济学家爱德华·李（Edward Lee）和乔纳森·科（Jonathan Koh）报告。

关税暴露可能是相对比较

“Tariffs have been a central theme of President Trump's election campaign. Since his inauguration, threats have been made but implementation has been delayed, raising expectations for negotiated solutions. Markets remain watchful amid uncertainty over execution and timing. We analysed the impact on GDP growth from the threats of universal tariffs on specific products – pharmaceuticals, lumber, iron and steel, copper, aluminium, semiconductors and我们发现，如果这些关税对钢和铝生效，新加坡，马来西亚和越南可能会受到负面影响。

“Compared to Trump 1.0, where US-led tariffs were primarily focused on China, Trump 2.0 tariffs are broader. Under Trump 2.0, ASEAN will still face the indirect effects of US-led tariffs, with another 20% tariff already imposed on China. While there may be benefits from reallocation of production and exports for ASEAN, the region also faces more direct product-specific and reciprocal (details are scant here) tariffs this time around. While the direct效果将是负面的，特定产品的关税可能会降低美国进口对关税的需求弹性，我们认为与中国等较大的经济体相比，该地区可能对关税应用具有次要的重要性。”